Back in the late 80’s, I projected that the US would not be number 1 militarily, economically, or industrially by the year 2020.
Militarily…unless we use our nuclear capability, we do not have the forces necessary to control every country with which we disagree while playing at being the biggest. In addition, we are not committed to “total war”, which is a necessity in the game of war. We are, at best, number 2.
Economically…with over 60% (possibly 72%) of the GDP being wasted on taxes by 68,000 American governments to support unnecessary and quadruple redundant their 3,000,000 “agencies” loaded with bureaucrats who make everything they touch turn to crap, America is bankrupt. America is the world’s largest debtor nation, has to “import” every dime of investment capital, has robbed the next 2 generations to pay for high living government employees today, and its taxes are increasing at triple the inflation rate!
Industrially…in respect to the American industrial environment (geographical size, labor force, equipment, machinery, natural resources, facilities, etc.), it produces less than 10% of its capability in REAL, necessary products (real products are NOT software, spread sheets, hamburgers, drive in weddings, “entertainment”, coke, baseball hats, curling irons, lipstick, etc.).
America is broke, and its currency value is smoke & mirrors artificially held together by manipulation. Because the American dollar is used as the world’s currency reserve, America “skims” billions “of unearned dollars right off the top for doing nothing and contributing no value. If America were to lose this skim, its currency would probably go under.
The Euro could replace the US$ and American currency would drop 20% to 40%. This is why America had to conquer Iraq. It is a warning to other oil producing countries not to do what Hussein had…he sold his oil and accepted Euros as payment. If the Euro were to quickly (6 months or so) replace the US$ as the world’s currency, the US$ would drop 20% to 40%.
Meanwhile, China, who has vowed to destroy America, would pull its estimated $1 trillion out of the U.S. Treasury and push the US$ decline over the edge and into collapse. By the way, I am not up on world events, but I do think that China is under tremendous pressure from the 250,000,000 newly affluent Chinese with high levels of disposable income to allow the Chinese currency (Yuan?) to float free and gain against the dollar so that the Chinese “nouveau middle class” can begin buying US goods (and others) with a stronger currency.
When Hussein began accepting Euros’ as payment for his oil from the Russians, Germans, French, and others, he caused panic in the American government. When Hussein converted his $10 billion UN reserve to Euros, he signed his death warrant. America had to conquer and serve notice to other oil producing countries NOT to accept Euros, thereby removing the threat of replacing the US$ with Euros.
Of course, back a couple of years, the Europeans did not especially want to see America get hurt. But with Bush de-nationalizing the Iraq oil and illegally (and unethically) rescinding Iraq lease agreements with France, Germany, Russia, and others, and then handing the sweet oil deals off to Daddy Bush’s buddies in America and England, the Europeans no longer give a darn about the US$ devaluing. In fact, I think some Europeans wouldn’t shed a tear if the fat, lazy, spoiled, and whining, “ugly American” governments and their bloated employee bureaucrats went totally bankrupt and had to try to survive in a real world environment.
The Fed seems to be trying to control the dollar in an attempt to right the wrong trade imbalance, especially against the devalued/pegged Chinese currency.
While all this is going on, the oil producing Muslim populated countries are talking to the Chinese who are conducting talks with the Russians, all of whom are speaking with the French and Germans…and they “aren’t discussing” French or German pastries.
The American Treasury Department allows American citizens to put $$$ anywhere in the world, BUT, those “free” American citizens MUST tell Big Brother exactly how much they put offshore and exactly where offshore they put it! Otherwise, another “felonious crime” against the American government will result in another “dangerous” “convicted felon” to be imprisoned for five (5) years for EACH offense. If you failed to report $100,000, you could go to prison for ten (10) five (5) years terms. That’s the way the American “justice” system now works. Of course, if the American citizen, in trying protect himself, was accused of telling a “lie” to the royal officials (kings, princes, counts, viceroys, sheriffs, etc.) persecuting him for this heinous crime against the royal government, he could get another an additional five (5) years for each “lie”, ten (10) years for “conspiracy” (speaking with other “criminals”), and twenty (20) years for “obstructing justice” (which nobody has yet figured out).
A “lie” is anything that the government investigators disagree with you about.
Regardless of the definition in all dictionaries, American media (the propaganda press) calls those 87% of all citizens who collapse under the sheer weight of government investigations, indictments, charges, prosecutions, persecutions, asset seizures, and threats “convicted felons”!
So, all in all, I see the US$ is at risk with, I think, a 30% probability of over 40% of currency collapse. What do you think?